Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 46.802841 55.187610 64.399970 75.240113 87.612226 101.257444 117.409303
2024-10-27 32.000932 42.467806 55.128944 71.433400 91.719500 115.965020 146.953748
2024-11-03 26.084171 37.859877 53.164004 74.207835 102.043235 137.215741 184.572728
2024-11-10 22.508571 35.209114 52.721726 78.114083 113.373160 159.903249 225.109109
2024-11-17 19.669282 32.900374 52.126201 81.320461 123.582539 181.439473 265.272915
2024-11-24 16.725331 29.844340 49.885106 81.667543 129.487371 197.190833 298.306761
2024-12-01 13.782939 26.239591 46.235987 79.322700 130.993123 206.529944 322.614797
2024-12-08 11.938412 24.105935 44.529290 79.619327 136.236051 221.336070 355.369652
2024-12-15 10.561478 22.538952 43.496113 80.772447 142.729075 238.217187 391.952067
2024-12-22 8.301066 18.942122 38.510995 74.773448 137.173667 236.175164 399.639490
2024-12-29 7.518435 18.058266 38.185630 76.643929 144.545156 254.590699 439.659763
2025-01-05 6.522560 16.561104 36.523372 75.928895 147.409733 265.859324 468.896973
2025-01-12 6.377831 16.996817 38.864975 83.251375 165.633447 304.721997 546.968760
2025-01-19 5.038575 14.516417 35.152831 78.914481 163.086323 309.354747 570.408992
2025-01-26 4.560945 13.943800 35.247713 81.917824 174.065216 337.588194 634.635285
2025-02-02 4.235974 13.675856 35.941779 86.167163 187.676569 371.190301 709.772090
2025-02-09 3.890168 13.272262 36.263961 89.654549 200.069737 403.342613 784.092229
2025-02-16 3.393164 12.328857 35.191577 90.031953 206.366780 424.855697 840.924670
2025-02-23 2.812242 10.979852 32.919287 87.481768 206.523136 435.038835 878.104506
2025-03-02 2.458746 10.225024 31.985286 87.804420 212.524954 456.395679 936.417014
2025-03-09 2.191821 9.675089 31.485433 89.058573 220.540928 481.986907 1003.686742
2025-03-16 1.675895 8.093546 27.927206 82.531574 211.261466 473.514127 1007.193149
2025-03-23 1.522934 7.784683 27.856614 84.567326 220.881268 502.692223 1082.992722